As I have written in the past, predictors of economic direction fail to account for “black swan” events. In the Scripture the term “then suddenly” represents a black swan event. We make our plans according to our paradigm of “normal” but then something unexpected happens that screws everything up. In 18 short days, Egyptian citizens ousted their ruler. Nobody saw it coming. The U.S. spends billions of Dollars funding agencies such as the CIA and was unprepared for the Black Swan event. The U.S. funded Mubarak’s regime with over $30 Billion and now has lost his influence in the Middle East.
The following countries in red provide us a perspective of civil unrest:
Wisconsin is not included because we are all in denial that our citizens are unhappy with their state governments, etc. The European countries are also left out because their pain isn’t as great as those in the “developing” countries. Other Middle Eastern countries are watching closely because they could be next as targets of civil unrest. If those in power had not taken such an “entitled” view of the world but instead acted as servants to the people, their countries would not have been affected. Leaders around the world should repent of their past actions and seek to understand Love and its fruit. Neglected and abused people have no loyalty to their masters. Is there one world leader currently known as “beloved”? Think about it.
Google, Facebook, Apple, Twitter, and many companies that supply the Internet, especially the mobile Internet, with software and hardware have facilitated the global revolution. This is why governments want to control the Internet. If you can restrict information and revelation then you can control the public. To reverse this information revolution would incite even greater unrest and quicker change.
It is my understanding that Libya has already declared force majeure with respect to its oil delivery obligations. With true production being tight, any further disturbance could shoot the price of oil another $10 -$50 per barrel. In turn, the Western economies would suffer and move back into recessionary territory. Those with non-commodity stock portfolios might want to consider hedging their investments against a market drop. There may be more black swans out there.