Servias Ministries Blog

There are two facets of financial wealth: maximizing Return on Investment (ROI) and Preservation of Wealth (PW).  In Biblical terms, we are to focus on life (PW) and the living (ROI).  Dying equates to losing money and death equates to a complete loss.  We must keep our focus on life and the living and discern the difference between life and death in every facet of our walk.  As an example. for decades we all assumed that our home would appreciate in value thus we leveraged ourselves to buy the most house our income would support.  We expected appreciation of value and were comfortable in maximizing our leverage.  As the Fed lowered interest rates which effectively lowered the monthly house payment, they facilitated more expensive home sales.  They tempted borrowers to maximize their leverage beyond their ability to ever repay the principal amount of the loan.  They sacrificed the “Preservation of Wealth” aspect for the expected “Return on Investment”.  You must keep these two facets in balance or you will shift towards death and dying.

The same is true for revelation.  Wealth represents life and ROI represents growth or the living.  Churches die when the revelation that built their congregation becomes tradition.  They failed to invest their time pursuing greater revelation and became complacent and began the death march.  How can you tell what path a group of people are on?  Become a fruit inspector and look at the fruit.

“Seek ye first the Kingdom of GOD and His righteousness” is a well known Scripture among Christians.  Judah was given the scepter representing the King and Joseph was given the birthright or inheritance.  Joseph’s sons were given prophetic names representing this reality: Manasseh and Ephraim.  Manasseh = "causing to forget"; Ephraim = "double ash-heap: I shall be doubly fruitful".  Why must we seek the Kingdom?  It is because we have forgotten the fruitfulness of the Kingdom.  We accepted our assignment before we entered into the womb (that’s a whole other topic in itself).  But now we are to seek this Kingdom of fruitfulness.  If we do, there is no need to be concerned about tomorrow for the daily fruit will sustain us just as the manna did in the wilderness.  Once we leave this wilderness, there will be no more need for the manna.

The manna was given to test their hearts for lawfulness (Exodus 16:4).  The manna was given as a daily provision and could not be hoarded.  They were to focus on “today” rather than the future.  Each day there were tested for lawfulness and their stewardship.  They needed to learn that to be good stewards, they must focus on what they were given for that day rather than always living and focusing on the future.  Men are always wanting to work a deal with Our Heavenly Father.  “God, if you will financially prosper me, I will fund the Gospel.”  In the meantime, needs all around them go unmet.  If you want to fund the Gospel then be a good steward over what you have been given.  Complete the project in front of you and show your Heavenly Father that you can be trusted with a small project so that HE can send you a larger project.  Men tend to run to and fro looking for that one deal which will make them rich, bypassing those small projects that will lead them to the road of success.  Be fruitful in what you have been given and trust Our Heavenly Father to expand your “tent”.

Excessive leverage is an attempt to bypass stewardship and catapult you to a higher net worth.  Greed kicks in and ultimately brings you back to a financial position worse than before you started.  Be of good cheer, Our Heavenly Father does not want to punish you but to prove and test you by revealing what is in your heart.  Once you see your error, you can then begin to build wealth on a solid foundation and become the blessing to others you were meant to be.

Have you been given a small project and failed to deliver?  If so, repent and complete it… even if it means you won’t make a profit.  By doing this, you establish a basis by which Our Heavenly Father can trust you with a larger project.  Anybody can start a project but only good stewards finish it.  This is the best return on investment and wisest means to preserve your “capital”.

Several months ago, I projected gold to hit $1,600 by January 11th, 2011.  We have 13 months to go and the commercial real estate market is now unwinding with the Dubai World news bringing this issue to the forefront.  Any discussions of raising interest rates is purely intended to manipulate perception.

The U.S. Total Debt is racing towards a cliff with nothing to stop it.  The Administration has projected this year’s deficit to be $1.417 Trillion.  However, simple mathematics would indicate that the deficit will be $1.885 Trillion based on the government’s own numbers.  In 1982, The National Debt was $1 Trillion.  By 2019, the National Debt will be $25 Trillion and the interest payments alone will be $1.5 Trillion per year.  This is bullish for gold, silver, oil, and natural gas denominated in U.S. Dollars.

Am I a gold bug?  Of course not, I am a pragmatic student of economics.  I don’t think there are any true experts in economics based on the track records of all their proposed economic theory.  Economics is affected by the spiritual realm and cannot be sanitized from its impact.  This higher realm affects men’s decisions, emotions, greed, and fear.  This is why mathematicians have been unable to find the “holy grail’” of formulas to predict future prices of stocks and commodities.  You must look at Biblical fundamentals and cycles to see where the economy is headed.  The real issue becomes the timing of the changes in direction.  In 1990, I discerned that the U.S. was headed for destruction but knew not the timing.  It took a decade for the first bubble to burst.  In the meantime, it appeared that I was wrong since I had no understanding of the timing factor.  Now the bubbles are bursting at a faster rate and leaders are using out-of-date tools to fix the problem.  There are such massive levels of leverage on assets out there, the only liquid asset without a liability attached is a precious metal.

Currently it takes about 8.75 ounces of gold to equal the Dow Jones Industrial Average (10,471/1200).  Once this ratio moves to a 5 to 1 relationship, one should consider reducing their gold or silver position slightly (assuming you have a 10-20% position relative to your assets now).  If the relationship moves to a 1 to 1 ratio, diversification into other assets should be considered.  This ratio has only been achieved a couple of times in the last 150+ years.  This would indicate that the public in now “all in” and the public is usually the last group to arrive on the investment scene.

The financial media has been talking up the Dubai default.  It would appear that there is some attempt to manipulate the fear among investors in an effort to increase the demand for the US Dollar and slow its slide.  Foreign Government and Institutional investing in gold will keep a lid on any notable appreciation of Dollars.  China recently announced its intention to be a buyer of gold, up to 10,000 tons, for the next ten years.  What currency do you think they will use to buy their gold?   See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/30/AR2009113001461.html

Our world leaders are “satisfied” that everything is under control.  Just a note on Gordon Brown: Between 1999 and 2002 Brown sold 60% of the UK’s gold reserves at $275 an ounce. A frequent criticism of this decision was that an unprecedented rise in the gold price since has resulted in £2 billion of lost potential revenue (at 2007 gold prices). As a result, the period from 1999 to 2002, when gold prices were the lowest for 20 years, has been dubbed the "Brown Bottom".  Based on today’s price, the bottom even looks deeper and what is that brown stuff on the bottom?

Exploitation of the poor and desperate is the focus of a recent PBS documentary.  I suspect that the only way they can get away with these documentaries is the fact that the number of viewers is low.  I have personally seen the result of banking’s “credit card trap”.  It ruins peoples’ lives, it breaks up marriages, and it damages the innocence of young children who are victims of these households.  Do the banks care if they are the instruments of destruction?  Apparently not.  This is just another aspect of the coming Divine judgment of America.

I was in banking in the 1970’s and learned every aspect of banking as a result of conducting “systems and standards” studies.  I would go into a department and work each job, observe each job, technology, and flow to determine what improvements were necessary to increase efficiency and effectiveness.  I was on the team that installed the first debit card machine in Oklahoma around 1976.  It was a Model NCR 770.  During our testing, I was able to “hack” the code and empty the contents.  As a good employee, I notified NCR and the programmers changed the software to close the backdoor.  Once I saw how the process worked, I knew that I would never use a debit card.  It would require substantial discipline and bookkeeping skills to keep your bank account in balance.  Additionally, it exposes your cash to outsiders who would attempt to extract it by unsavory methods.  Hence, to this very day I write checks, use credit cards, or pay with cash.  If you cannot pay off your credit card, don’t use it for daily purchases.  I use the bank’s money for up to 30 days, as a convenience.  The system is making it more difficult for you to write a check.  Why?  It is inconvenient to them to process the paper versus processing an electronic signal.  Online banking is not safe either.  You are only as good as the weakest link in the electronic flow of your information.  The best hackers will install a “keyboard ghosting” program on your PC and simply log the sites and your user-id and password.  Then at some point, have it sent to an address, encrypted of course.  I am somewhat surprised that this method has not become commonplace.  Do you think the smart hackers are the ones who attempt to erase your disk drive?  No, those are the immature but bright hackers who want their ego stroked.  The banks are still required to “verify” your signature on a check before accepting it.  However do to the volume, that verification rarely occurs.  It is still your safeguard against someone else having unauthorized access to your money.  In the 1970’s, bankers were hoping to be “paperless” in 20 years thereby eliminating this “inconvenience”.

If banks are concerned about making money, why have they increased the number of branches so that we are never more than 1 mile from a branch of some bank?  Greed!  Their exorbitant fees have allowed them to grow their geography resulting in greater market share and fatter bottom lines .  When I was growing up in a suburb of about 40,000 people, we had about five banks in the suburb.  It seemed to work out well then.

Check cashing companies and pawn shops are designed to exploit the desperate.  Lawmakers look the other way when the conversation focuses on the sky high effective rates that lenders charge.  It amazes me that the interviewees could keep a straight face when they talk about the prevailing attitude of banks to find loopholes in regulations that would allow them to charge unlimited interest rates.  The Congressmen in the interview would lead us to believe that the banking industry is the one in charge, I suspect they are right.

Isa 10:1

“WOE to those who decree unrighteous decrees,

Who write misfortune,

Which they have prescribed

Isa 10:2

To rob the needy of justice,

And to take what is right from the poor of My people,

That widows may be their prey,

And that they may rob the fatherless.

Isa 10:3

What will you do in the day of punishment,

And in the desolation which will come from afar?

To whom will you flee for help?

And where will you leave your glory?

See: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/creditcards/view/

Peter Lynch was one of the greatest investors and managed the Fidelity Magellan fund.  He would comment about his shopping trips with his wife and how those trips impacted his stock positions.  We went to BestBuy last night to look at a new computer monitor.  My wife went to look at the Wii games as I was analyzing features and benefits of each monitor.  We both were encountered by sales associates.  Last year you couldn’t even get one to make eye contact with you let alone assist you.  This year, they were seeking us out like sharks in a feeding frenzy.  Once they found out what we were interested in, they immediately took 10% off of any purchase we made.  The sales associate commented to my wife, “We just need to sell something”.  In Oklahoma, our unemployment rate is below the national average and have not had the same economic impact as the eastern and western states of the country.  If sales are down at our locations, one can only imagine what they are in those states such as Michigan, Florida, New York, and California.

“Black Friday” is just a few days away.  I wonder how the powers that be will massage the expected severe drop in sales?  You can be sure that come January, store closings are going to ramp up and inflict further damage to the commercial real estate market whose bubble is expected to pop in 2010.  Any recovery suggested by the media will only be short lived.

Any further economic stimulus will not address the huge debt problem, only add to it.  Be prepared for the double dip.  Many precious metal newsletter writers are calling for a “top” in the price of gold.  I disagree.  It may dip due to volatility, but it has a long way to go before it goes to a “mania” level of $5000-6000.  Expect daily swings in the $100 class.  Those who trade the precious metal will be whipped around like a kid on a merry-go-round.  Our historic assumptions that those in power are in control will evaporate just as Dorothy and her friends realized who was behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz.

More portfolio managers are now getting on the gold wagon: http://seekingalpha.com/article/174334-paulson-gold-s-bull-run-is-just-beginning?source=feed 

In the cycle of investing, smart money gets in first, institutional money goes in second, and last of all, John Q. Public hops in.  Until the shoeshine boy gives you a tip to buy gold, it would appear that gold will continue its march upward.  Silver will follow.

With President Obama now acknowledging the possibility of a “double-dip” recession (we called it a “W” shaped depression) more banks are looking at recommending a defensive posture for their wealthy clients.  I did not receive my copy, did you?

See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

We are moving toward the edge of a financial cliff and only Our Heavenly Father knows the outcome.  Prepare your heart and you will come out the other side with a heart of gratitude.

Everyone seeks revelation, or so they claim.  Actually, everyone seeks a double witness to embrace their current view and new revelation may be rejected since by the ego-dominated view prevails over the consciousness of the people.  This is not a new issue.  The entire generation of Israelites died in the wilderness because they could not embrace the revelation of the Promised Land.  Only Joshua and Caleb ( a double witness) would enter in.  It takes courage to embrace a revelation.  How many times have we read in Scripture “be of good courage”?

It was Our Heavenly Father’s will for the children of Israel to spend 18 months in the wilderness but it was His plan for them to spend 40 years.  Their egos were dominated by the slavery mentality and fiercely protected their ego’s position, to their own demise.  What happens when you submit to a revelation?  Things change for the better.  When the Holy Spirit was manifested at Pentecost, the revelation was embraced and changed the world.  Those who did not participate were left to “go ’round the mountain” in the wilderness once again.

At this website, we have been sharing about the revelation of energy medicine.  Some will embrace it and live healthier lives whereas some will reject it and go the way of the current and popular protocols of pharma-based medicine with all of the nasty side effects.  Jesus healed people by various means and methods.  Had He healed only by one method, people would have focused on that particular method as the “formula” for healing.  The revelation of energy based medicine is not the end game but is a bridge to wisdom and understanding of the impact of the spirit and soul on the body’s physiology.  It is also a lawful means to healing.  I have been healed by the anointing of Our Heavenly Father, superceding all natural means of healing and recuperation.  I much prefer that method.  However, when we expose ourselves to toxic agents, bacteria, viruses, etc., there is a lawful and low impact means of removal available to us via energy medicine.  At some point in time even energy medicine will be looked at as an obsolete method of restoring the body to health.  Jesus walked the earth without sickness or disease until He accepted them on the Cross.  At some point, the revelation of that walk will be fully revealed.

I recently attend a lunch meeting to discuss the future of technology and the opportunity for a specific company to position itself in the middle of the anticipated direction of technological flow.  Their clientele are international-based companies so their positioning should accommodate a global view of technology rather than a U.S.-centric view.  Their internal staff has had a narrow view of technology and only operated on one specific platform.  When an expert came in to review their current operations and recommend a global-oriented path, the internal staff rejected the revelation.  Why?  I am convinced that the ego prevailed to protect the past decisions of the company.  From a strategic point of view, this company is at the same place it was twelve years ago.  Yes, they have new equipment and software, but their overall operational effectiveness has not improved significantly over the past decade.  At some point in time, old revelation becomes tradition and dies.  From a business standpoint, the corporation files bankruptcy or is taken over by a competitor who continues to seek revelation in the area of their focus.  Contracting consultants who only have experience in the current company platform is designed to “double witness” the ego-centric direction.  What a waste of time and money!

A young man in his 30’s recently went through a divorce and thought his life was over.  He ended up with virtually nothing after 10+ years of marriage.  Given that divorce is devastating on both parties, he is now focused on his current situation.  He has nothing and the prospects for income don’t look to good with the state of the economy.  Hence, he is depressed.  On the other hand, I see all sorts of potential.  I have also gone through the “financial wilderness” only to find a full and complete restoration on the other side.  I once unexpectedly made $10,000 in 15 minutes because Our Heavenly Father sent a business deal my way.  “Success is just one phone call away.”  Our eyes must be opened to enable us to see opportunity but what keeps this from happening?  Continuing to walk in an illusion that is created by the ego to enslave us will only result in destruction.  Illusions are temporary in nature, the reality of Our Heavenly Father is permanent.

We ask the wrong question!  When we continue to pursue a path of resistance, or hindered success, we should stop and “be still”.  Most people ask the question, “Lord, may I continue on this path?”  The answer will be “Yes”.  However the question should be “Lord, should I continue on this path?”  The answer will probably be “No”.  Our Heavenly Father will answer you according to the idols in your heart unless you submit to HIS revelation of your situation.  HE operates in perfect wisdom, understanding, and knowledge of your situation.  HE is not limited to your view of the world.  There will be times when you should cut your losses and change direction.  Most investors get to learn that lesson the hard way.  When they pick a stock and it begins to drop in value, their ego tends to prevail and they hold that stock until it becomes worthless.

If you are not fruitful in an area of your life, admit it, repent.  Repentance means to “change direction” and in Scripture Our Heavenly Father tells us to “turn from our wicked ways”.  If you are heading in the wrong direction and are willing to conduct a fruit assessment, you are setting the stage for blessing.  If you seek revelation in the area of fruitlessness and submit yourself (and your ego) and admit you were wrong (confession), Our Heavenly Father will provide you with the revelation needed to correct the problem.  HE may send someone with the gifts and calling to assist, consult, or direct you into the revelation that will produce the good fruit you seek and desire.  Discernment, acknowledgement, and workability are humbling attitudes.  Without these attributes you are destined to continue your trek in the wilderness.

The ego will promote transference.  The problem will transfer its symptoms to whatever it believes contains the solution.  However, solutions will be found only in relation to actual causes.  This is why confession is important.  This is where the “break” in revelation occurs. Understanding where and when the ego took over is critical to resolving the underlying issue that put you on the wrong path to begin with.  Otherwise, if a new solution to the problem comes forth, the ego will attack the new solution, if given the opportunity, and will attempt to force failure on the new direction.  However, revelation supercedes the ego’s illusions and will prevail because with the revelation comes the powerful mandate “Be of good courage”.

This graph says it all and it would be wise for you to understand the ramifications of what this graph tells you and prepare for its impact in the near future.  Look at the dark blue section “Crude oil – currently producing fields”.  That is the oil coming out of all of the world’s oil fields, the primary source of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel today.  The perception created by the government, the “managed” markets, and the media, is that there is no problem.  That is the deception.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) has been projecting optimistic supply vs. demand numbers due to pressure by countries such as the U.S.  By painting an optimistic future, oil prices have been kept at manipulated lows allowing the U.S. to reduce the negative economic impact of energy as it attempts to keep the “wheels on the economic wagon”.  $147 oil showed everyone the destructive force affecting growth of the economy (except the oil producing states).

The lighter blue area on the graph represents “oil fields yet to be developed”.  That is looking pretty optimistic as well.  This is all on the backdrop of a growth expectation of 105 million barrels of demand expected over the life of this graph.  For those who understand the impact of this delta, they will modify their lifestyle accordingly.  $4 natural gas is a travesty given that this energy crisis needs a higher price to curb cheap energy decision-making.  Higher prices conserve energy whereas $4 natural gas sends the message that “all is well”.

The IEA has been reducing its expected demand from 120 million barrels per day down to 105 million barrels for this graph.  Hey, I could even get a job with the IEA if they just need someone to play with numbers and graphs.  There is dissent within the IEA about these numbers.  The world is closer to running out of oil than the IEA is willing to admit.  Panic buying in the oil pits is ahead!

There will notable declines in oil production which may cause a world economic crash.  If the populous understood this graph, hoarding would deplete finished product supplies overnight.  Prices will spike to $300+ for a barrel of oil equating to $10 gasoline in the U.S.  The current U.S. economic environment cannot stand this energy shock.  Management by Perception is mandated as an attempt to deceive the public into thinking that everything is going to be alright and to keep spending and buying those SUV’s.

Suppressing information is deception, no matter how you cut it.  Manipulating perception is deception.  This is so serious that we as individuals cannot afford to wait until the wheels come off the wagon before we take a defensive posture.

See:  http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/15/oil-industry-peak-oil-projections

Energy

Oil prices are at $77.  Oilfield depletion continues whether the global economy is in a recession or not.  New oilfield discoveries are in a steady decline despite the advances in technology.  There is insufficient new production coming online to offset these factors as global demand is increasing.  China has recognized this critical issue and has been acquiring oil reserves around the world by deploying their U.S. Dollar cash reserves.  Western governments and agencies have failed to act after the U.S. Geological Survey in 2005, reduced their global oil reserve estimates by two thirds- from 939 billion barrels to 334 billion barrels with a 95% confidence level.  95% of transportation and 95% of food production rely on oil.  Alternative energy sources will not address this reality in the short term.  In a report last fall, the IEA reviewed 800 oilfields and increased the estimated depletion rate to 6.7%.  17 of the 20 largest oilfields in the world are 40 years old or older.  Since 2005, conventional oil production did not increase even when the price spiked to $147 per barrel.  This clearly indicates that the world’s oil producers are unable to sustain the current levels of supply with decline rates eating away at their annual production numbers.  Over the next decade, conventional oil production by existing fields will drop 50%.  See: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2008/WEO2008_es_English.pdf  Page 8.  Conventional oil production is currently 74 million barrels per day and is expected to drop to 37 million barrels per day by 2020.  What will make up the difference?  Non-conventional oil from sources such as the Canadian tar sands have a more expensive break-even cost per barrel.  Prices will go up even though demand destruction may occur.  It is basic Economics 101 theory.  $147 may look like cheap oil soon.

U.S. Dollar

At this writing, the price of gold hit $1,100 and it is not over yet.  Gold is the barometer of the decline of the U.S. Dollar.  The U.S. Dollar index is a basket of currencies valued against the dollar:

• Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
• Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
• Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
• Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
• Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
• Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

Notice that the Euro has the greatest weight.  When the dollar goes down, the Euro goes up in value thereby hurting the European export market since the European goods are more expensive than the U.S. counterparts.  Nobody wants their currency to go up in value right now because they need the export business.  All currencies are losing value relative to gold but the dollar is losing ground at a faster clip.  As the value of the U.S. dollar declines, the relative wealth of Americans’ assets decline.

U.S. Deficits

The Obama Administration is projecting a $1.5 Trillion deficit this coming year. By 2019 the deficit will be unsustainable and the interest expense will consume domestic tax receipts.  The consumer is de-leveraging his debt load and is no longer in the mood to buy in excess.  The U.S. stock market will be watching Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, to see how bad the Christmas spending season will be.  Reduced spending will reduce tax receipts and payrolls of retail oriented companies.  November 30th could be an ugly day on Wall Street if retailers don’t make their numbers.

Commercial Real Estate

The next bubble to burst is the commercial real estate.  The retailers that are barely holding on hoping for a reasonable Christmas bump will be closing their doors in January with fire sale prices to cash out of their remaining inventory.  Amazon.com will be the glimmer of hope since consumers will become efficient shoppers by necessity.  Though not as big as the housing bubble, the ripple effect of the commercial real estate foreclosures will force asset devaluation to continue.

Unemployment

22.1% is the realistic number.  Let’s face it, we all know people unemployed or severely underemployed.  The following graph says it all:

When we need “real” numbers, the statisticians are reporting “cooked” numbers with optimistic bias.  The economic stimulus is not creating infrastructure to support ongoing growth where new jobs are created.

Summary

As Christians, we are to walk by faith, not by sight.  Economic calamity will bring people back to a focus on Our Heavenly Father.  Self-interest has been the focus of the average American, not Love and service to others.  The coming period will be painful for many but those who have been called by Our Heavenly Father to minister life to others will be quite busy.  I expect repentance to replace arrogance and The Lord’s Prayer will become a sincere petition: Thy Kingdom come, They Will be done, on earth as it is in Heaven!

As I have said in the past, increased complexity equals collapse.  There are just some things the mind has trouble grasping.  Monetary engineers have built a house of cards that can only remain standing by the Fed’s willingness to provide the glue: taxpayer dollars.  The excuse of “greater good” always demands the question: Who does the action benefit?

In Scripture, “666” is first used in describing gold given to Solomon whereas its last use describes “the beast” in Revelations.

1Ki 10:14  Now the weight of gold that came to Solomon in one year was six hundred threescore and six talents of gold,

Rev 13:18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number [is] Six hundred threescore [and] six

Goldman Sachs’ name keeps coming up as being complicit in the ‘Cataclysmic Financial Crisis’ of 2008-2009 where taxpayer money is used to bail out the current financial system at the same time a multitude of players profit from those actions.  This must be the “Greater Good” group.  See: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7T5HaOgYHpE

When the apathetic and lethargic taxpayer finally wakes from his slumber, we may see a whole new set of faces in power.  I expect volatility in commodities, especially gold and silver, as the Fed attempts to implement its strategy to exit the quantitative easing in the markets.  If they fail to execute a perfect exit, the markets could seize up again and it could really get ugly out there when the glue is removed.  The Chinese are expecting the Fed to protect the value of the dollar and their trillion dollar plus investment and the market is expecting the Fed to devalue the dollar to protect the Domestic Liabilities economic structure including the bond market.  This appears to be a no-win situation.