Identifying the Source of the Problem

January 5th, 2009

Man’s logic attempts to determine or predict results, consequences, or derivative patterns.  This is the basis of technical analysis for stock trading.  This logic is also the basis for the manipulation of markets by the consortium of central banks around the world.  Man’s logic attempts to control as much as possible which is contrary to Biblical principles of service.  Rather than letting the market (or mankind in general, move by God) determine value, central governments by nature want to grow and control their populations to the point where they are no longer seen as "public servants".  Jesus served the public and is the standard that should be sought.  He could tap into the power of Heaven and could have subdued the world governments.  His message was to subdue the world by love with the Spirit of God, not by might.

We are heading for a world class depression that could be named "the Greater Great Depression".  Politicians are in denial as well as the American public.  Denial suggest that there are unseen forces withholding resources that could maintain the status quo.  I disagree.  Man’s greed will always exploit resources immediately to reap the fruit.  "Now" is the name of the game, not "Later".  Greed and lust demand immediate satisfaction.  When doing the right thing collides with greed and lust, the result is determined by the character of the decision maker(s).  Our humanity continues to war with the spirit and attempts to use carnal logic to justify the path of greed, lust, and ultimately corruption.

What must be done to avert a disastrous economic event that appears on the horizon?  The Bible identifies thirteen famines.  Those famines provide us insight of the problem:

#1 Gen 12:10 And there was a famine in the land: and Abram went down into Egypt to sojourn there; for the famine [was] grievous in the land.

Abram’s covenant with God was challenged.  He was told to go to Canaan where he built an altar at Bethel.  The famine came and he went to Egypt.  His faith was tested.

#2 Gen 26:1 And there was a famine in the land, beside the first famine that was in the days of Abraham. And Isaac went unto Abimelech king of the Philistines unto Gerar.

Esau sold his birthright which he despised, an act of rebellion and contrary to the covenant of Abraham.

#3 Gen 41:54 And the seven years of dearth began to come, according as Joseph had said: and the dearth was in all lands; but in all the land of Egypt there was bread.

Joseph’s brother’s challenged THE LORD’S Word toward Joseph and his calling.

#4 Ruth 1:1 Now it came to pass in the days when the judges ruled, that there was a famine in the land. And a certain man of Bethlehemjudah went to sojourn in the country of Moab, he, and his wife, and his two sons.

The Book of Ruth established the necessity of a kinsman-redeemer to be able to supply all need.

#5 2 Samuel 21:1 Then there was a famine in the days of David three years, year after year; and David enquired of the LORD. And the LORD answered, [It is] for Saul, and for [his] bloody house, because he slew the Gibeonites.

THE LORD’S covenant was broken and disregarded.

#6 1Kings 18:2 And Elijah went to shew himself unto Ahab. And [there was] a sore famine in Samaria.

King Ahab and Jezebel were evil in the sight of THE LORD.  Ahab erected an altar for Baal. (1Ki 16:33 And Ahab made a grove; and Ahab did more to provoke the LORD God of Israel to anger than all the kings of Israel that were before him.)

#7 2Kings 4:38 And Elisha came again to Gilgal: and [there was] a dearth in the land; and the sons of the prophets [were] sitting before him: and he said unto his servant, Set on the great pot, and seethe pottage for the sons of the prophets.

A wild vine referenced the unfruitful nature of Israel.  However, the wild vine was dealt with by the meal (barley) showing us that GOD will sustain us through the famine.

#8 2Kings 7:4 If we say, We will enter into the city, then the famine [is] in the city, and we shall die there: and if we sit still here, we die also. Now therefore come, and let us fall unto the host of the Syrians: if they save us alive, we shall live; and if they kill us, we shall but die.

The Syrian King had besieged Samaria, the famine resulted and set the stage for a dramatic decrease in prices (deflation) and removal of the Syrians.

#9 2Kings 25:3 And on the ninth [day] of the [fourth] month the famine prevailed in the city, and there was no bread for the people of the land.

The famine marked the end of the Kingdom.

#10 Nehemiah 5:3 [Some] also there were that said, We have mortgaged our lands, vineyards, and houses, that we might buy corn, because of the dearth.

The Temple had been in ruin and people were no longer worshipping THE LORD.

#11 Jeremiah 14:1 The word of the LORD that came to Jeremiah concerning the dearth.

False Prophets (v14) had prophesied lies, false visions and divinations through the deceit of their heart.

#12 Luke 15:14 And when he had spent all, there arose a mighty famine in that land; and he began to be in want.

The prodigal son wasted his inheritance with riotous living and encountered a famine.

#13 Acts 11:28 And there stood up one of them named Agabus, and signified by the Spirit that there should be great dearth throughout all the world: which came to pass in the days of Claudius Caesar.

Rome was rejecting the Bread of Life.  Agabus (locust) may be tied to the separation of Egypt from the Children of Israel.

 

The general theme is that famines result from the people turning away from THE LORD.  They worship the created rather than the Creator and ultimately fall into the trap of relying on their own logic and experience.

The good news is that Our Heavenly Father has brought the world through these famines with HIS great grace and mercy.  HE sends deliverers (overcomers) to guide the whole earth through these times and to restore proper focus and relationships.  All of the information, intellect, worldly wisdom, and skill did not prevent these 13 famines.  A famine in your spiritual life will result in a famine in your physical life.  Repent, turn back towards Our Heavenly Father and ask for HIS great grace and mercy to prevail over the coming turbulent times.

The Dollar Crisis Vector

January 4th, 2009

As we enter 2009, the U.S. Dollar is heading toward a crisis.  Currently, the dollar crisis appears to reach its climax mid-year 2012.  The Federal Reserve has begun injecting new money into the U.S. economy at breakneck speed and this will infiltrate Main Street soon.  I expect commodity prices to begin their upward move soon since they are priced in U.S. Dollars but sold around the globe.  With the pedal to the metal, Bernanke can only hope that these injections will not overtake the system like a flood.

The American saver has been bamboozled once again!  Many of us have spent our lives "doing the right thing" when it comes to saving and investing for the future.  We did not sign up for "sub-prime" loans but saved our money for the classic down payment, we diligently put money in our savings accounts, and we tempered our spending so that we would not be overextended.  Along comes Wall Street seeking temporary profits purely based on greed and sets the economy up for failure.  The Fed’s response is to move interest rates to zero.  Who does this help?  The banks.  Who does this hurt? The average American saver!  We are always told that this is done for the "greater good".  Who is the "greater good"?

2009 will be a volatile year.  The Obama-nation is planning to create 3 million new jobs.  The administration will do everything in its power to keep unemployment below 10% because it seems that everything goes south beyond that magic number.

State Governments want some lovin’ too.  They want the Feds to provide over $2 Trillion in state assistance as if the Feds were Daddy Warbucks.  All of this funding is coming from you, me, and the global lenders.  The global lenders will ultimately be on the losing end since the only thing left to do after the smoke clears is to devalue the U.S. Dollar.  The buying power of our savings accounts will drop relative to other currencies.  Global lenders will dump U.S. Dollars and head for the exits.

What are we to do?  Since most of us are not independently wealthy, we must "crash proof" ourselves as much as possible.

1)  Do what is essential to your life.  What is truly important?  What is unimportant?  Create a "To Do" list daily and follow it.

2)  De-leverage.  Lower and eliminate debt where possible.  Eliminate credit card debt.  Move to cash basis on monthly expenditures.  Evaluate current expenditures and determine whether you really need to spend the money.

3)  Do not commit to new long term liabilities unless you are confident that you can cash flow the commitment.  Why renew a two year commitment to a cell phone contract, just stay on a month to month commitment for now.  Pay as you go!

4)  Simplify your life.  De-clutter your home. Remove the clutter from your mind.  There is so much "noise" occurring now.  Everyone on the Internet has an opinion… including me.  Ask Our Heavenly Father to direct you to who you ought to read and listen to.  Get rid of the rest.  If you haven’t used the "stuff" around the house for 24 months, do you really need it?  Give those articles around the house to others in need.

5)  Renew relationships.  Let’s face it, the clutter and complexity of your life has shoved personal relationships to the back burner.  Everyone is too busy with non-essential tasks.  We have become servants to complexity.  Technology creates servants if possible and people have become addicted to information.  Admit (or confess) your problem then re-discover face to face relationships.  In the end, life is all about relationships, not things!

6)  Address your ego.  Your ego is not your friend.  Excess consumption is often due to our quest to project an illusion.  "We spend money we don’t have to impress people we don’t know".

7) Pursue revelation.  There is no set formula that we can all implement because each of us are in unique situations.  Only Our Heavenly Father can supply your specific "crash proof" action plan.

Thank You for Your 2008 Support

December 31st, 2008

We thank everyone who supported Servias Ministries this year.  The ministry continues to grow and our readership has expanded to Europe and Canada.  We appreciate reader comments and will continue to provide relevant economic and health oriented writings.

 

 

 

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Memory Loss

December 30th, 2008

Some say "Experience is the best teacher" but I believe "Experience of someone else fully revealed to me is the best teacher".  The Holy Scripture provides us an excellent economic guide to live by.  Those that study history see that society continues to make the same mistakes over and over again.  As it has been said, "History may not repeat itself, but it runs parallel".  The current financial crisis is a case in point.  Once that most of the Great Depression Era men and women died off, their wisdom and understanding died with them.  They were in essence the watchmen on the wall.  They would remind us of the mistakes made which caused the Great Depression.  Once their call for sanity disappeared, the current leadership (and their egos) decided they could defy economic gravity.

Our ego has overpowered our memory.  Our ego wants to overpower our ability to hear GOD.  America has become the poster child for the epitome of economic consumption.  Do you remember when the President told us to "go out and spend" to help the economy?  The last two Fed Chairmen claimed ignorance of the financial bubbles prior to their bursting. C’mon!

Our long-term memories tend to erase themselves thus adversely affecting our judgment.  Our actions are based upon motivating factors such as greed, fear, judgment, or revelation.  Those of us who have knowingly acted on revelation thirst for more!  Revelation from Our Heavenly Father is superior to any set of facts that could be presented.  Why?  Our Heavenly Father is not restricted to this time continuum that we are operating in. HE knows the beginning from end.

The Great Depression was the result of the Roaring 20’s.  The 1920’s was noted for the loose credit granted to borrowers who then "played" the stock market.  Sound familiar?  The current policy makers are already making the same mistakes made back then.  This is not a repeat of the 1930’s because the U.S. was a creditor nation with a strong manufacturing base and an exporter of oil.  Now the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in history, an importer of oil, and a much smaller manufacturing base replaced by a "services based" economy.  The consequences may be more dramatic this time.

Frankly, I’m getting tired of the rhetoric, everybody’s got an opinion of the solution to this global problem.  Everyone has memory loss!  Leaders are determined to make the same mistakes of seventy years ago.  Is it a massive conspiracy by the elitists?  Is it a hidden agenda being carried out over multiple decades and multiple descendents of the ultra wealthy?  Fear mongering is not the solution to sway public opinion to the right economic direction.  A "black swan" event is not prepared for in any of the mental disciplines.  Mathematical probabilities exclude a financial tsunami event in the investment calculations.  How do we prepare for those society changing events?  What can we do to respond to those gut wrenching challenges that seem to appear out of nowhere?

First of all, study to show thyself approved:

2Ti 2:15-16

Be diligent to present yourself approved to God, a worker who does not need to be ashamed, rightly dividing the word of truth.

But shun profane and idle babblings, for they will increase to more ungodliness.

Secondly, pray in your closet:

Mat 6:6-7
But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly.

But when ye pray, use not vain repetitions, as the heathen [do]: for they think that they shall be heard for their much speaking.

"Closet" is also used in the Old Testament:

Joe 2:1-19
Blow ye the trumpet in Zion, and sound an alarm in my holy mountain: let all the inhabitants of the land tremble: for the day of the LORD cometh, for [it is] nigh at hand;

A day of darkness and of gloominess, a day of clouds and of thick darkness, as the morning spread upon the mountains: a great people and a strong; there hath not been ever the like, neither shall be any more after it, [even] to the years of many generations.

A fire devoureth before them; and behind them a flame burneth: the land [is] as the garden of Eden before them, and behind them a desolate wilderness; yea, and nothing shall escape them.

The appearance of them [is] as the appearance of horses; and as horsemen, so shall they run.

Like the noise of chariots on the tops of mountains shall they leap, like the noise of a flame of fire that devoureth the stubble, as a strong people set in battle array.

Before their face the people shall be much pained: all faces shall gather blackness.

They shall run like mighty men; they shall climb the wall like men of war; and they shall march every one on his ways, and they shall not break their ranks:

Neither shall one thrust another; they shall walk every one in his path: and [when] they fall upon the sword, they shall not be wounded.

They shall run to and fro in the city; they shall run upon the wall, they shall climb up upon the houses; they shall enter in at the windows like a thief.

The earth shall quake before them; the heavens shall tremble: the sun and the moon shall be dark, and the stars shall withdraw their shining:

And the LORD shall utter his voice before his army: for his camp [is] very great: for [he is] strong that executeth his word: for the day of the LORD [is] great and very terrible; and who can abide it?

Therefore also now, saith the LORD, turn ye [even] to me with all your heart, and with fasting, and with weeping, and with mourning:

And rend your heart, and not your garments, and turn unto the LORD your God: for he [is] gracious and merciful, slow to anger, and of great kindness, and repenteth him of the evil.

Who knoweth [if] he will return and repent, and leave a blessing behind him; [even] a meat offering and a drink offering unto the LORD your God?

Blow the trumpet in Zion, sanctify a fast, call a solemn assembly:

Gather the people, sanctify the congregation, assemble the elders, gather the children, and those that suck the breasts: let the bridegroom go forth of his chamber, and the bride out of her closet.

Let the priests, the ministers of the LORD, weep between the porch and the altar, and let them say, Spare thy people, O LORD, and give not thine heritage to reproach, that the heathen should rule over them: wherefore should they say among the people, Where [is] their God?

Then will the LORD be jealous for his land, and pity his people.

Yea, the LORD will answer and say unto his people, Behold, I will send you corn, and wine, and oil, and ye shall be satisfied therewith: and I will no more make you a reproach among the heathen:

The Bride of Christ, the overcomers, will be found in their closets receiving revelation from THE GOD OF HEAVEN AND EARTH.

The answer to the global financial crisis is found in this passage from the Book of Joel: Repent (turn to ME), fast (subdue the ego), weep and with mourning (confess our sins and release them), rend our hearts (so they become pure).  When this occurs, revelation will replace man’s wisdom, judgment, and fear.  Only then will the crisis be over.

"Fear not"

December 28th, 2008

2009 may be the year where the markets are more volatile than any other time in history.  With the dramatic increase in information and opinion exposure from the hundreds of channels on television as well as the Internet, men and women will be exposed to many potentially fearful events.  Radio talk shows thrive on confrontation, dissension, conspiracy, etc.  Public opinion is swayed by network news reporting of events deemed by the producers to be the "news of the hour".  Reporting of politicians’ indiscretions can end their lives in public office.  Good news just doesn’t sell like bad news.  Bad news ultimately generates more income.  People have come to thrive on fear as long as it doesn’t hit to close to home.  As they say, "it’s a recession if your neighbor lost his job, it’s a depression if you lost your job".

The first mention of fear in the Scripture is:

Gen 3:10 And he (Adam) said, I heard thy voice in the garden, and I was afraid, because I [was] naked; and I hid myself.

A judgment is a balanced weighing up of evidence preparatory to making a decision.  Both Adam and Eve made a judgment based on evidence they had.  However, they did NOT make the judgment on ALL evidence or facts.  Our Heavenly Father had all of the facts that were needed to make an accurate judgment.  HE warned Adam about the fruit and told him what the result would be if he ate the fruit.  Adam did not fully trust The LORD but trusted his own judgment instead.  Both Adam and Eve disregarded Our Heavenly Father’s knowledge of the facts in making their decision thus they exalted themselves above THE LORD.  This act of judging started a process that has continued to this day.

We judge people and things daily based on an incomplete set of facts.  Who has the complete set of facts?  Our Heavenly Father!  Our constant judging of others has kept us from a more intimate relationship with Our Heavenly Father.  In the following passage, Jesus warns us of judging:

Mat 7:1-5
1 Judge not, that ye be not judged.

2 For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again.

3 And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?

4 Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam [is] in thine own eye?

5 Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.

Notice that He used the term "brother".  People have a tendency to judge everyone, including those closest to them.

 

"Fear not" was first used by Our Heavenly Father when speaking to Abram.  Abram had just defeated Chedorlaomer and the kings who were with him in a battle.  Then Melchizedek king of Salem brought out bread and wine; he was the priest of God Most High and proclaimed the following:

 

Gen 14:19-20

19 And he blessed him and said: "Blessed be Abram of God Most High, Possessor of heaven and earth;

20 And blessed be God Most High, Who has delivered your enemies into your hand." And he gave him a tithe of all.

 

Abram gave tithe of all which tells us he understood the "law of the tithe" prior to the writing of the Law by Moses.  Melchizedek proclaimed that GOD MOST HIGH was the possessor of heaven and earth which is the precondition of a tithe being given.  Fear is the primary motivator for the withholding of the tithe.  By giving the tithe, Abram acknowledged the MOST HIGH GOD, Our Heavenly Father.

The King of Sodom briefly entered the picture and tried to make a deal with Abram but was unable to negotiate with Abram.  Then THE LORD spoke to Abram:

 

Gen 15:1  After these things the word of the LORD came unto Abram in a vision, saying, Fear not, Abram: I [am] thy shield, [and] thy exceeding great reward.

 

"Shield" means defense, defender, or protector.  "Exceeding great reward" denotes a fullness of blessing and compensation as in wages.  People tend to interpret Scriptures like this to mean they will become rich and no longer have any responsibility and obligation to anyone.  Abraham’s wealth was consistent with his calling.  Each of us will receive the necessary means to fulfill our calling.  However, in order to fulfill our calling we must not judge people thus causing a blockage in our ability to hear THE FATHER.  Also we must rest in our relationship with Our Heavenly Father and "fear not", HE has all of the facts!

The Letter vs. The Intent

December 26th, 2008

The United States as well as individual states have thousands and thousands of laws on the books.  In Oklahoma, it is against the law to spit on the sidewalk as well as curse in public.  Those laws are still on the books but not enforced.  Political leaders find it expedient to have laws passed with many loopholes to allow virtually any action to be "lawful" by the government.  We spoke recently about the laws passed to fund the financial bailouts.  In a recent speech I heard by Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House, he stated the following:

(Quote) "I think there are going to be two scandals coming out of this process when we get around to all the historians and reporters and people who pay attention because this is now a big enough scandal.  You might even get a book by Bob Woodward about this by the time it’s over.  It’s reached a stage where you might actually have political reporters try and understand financial things.  One of the scandals will be the entire process of political donations and power on Capitol Hill and the degree to which people like Senator Chris Dodd, who was the largest recipient of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is also in charge of the committee overseeing them.  And I suspect you may see a serious proposal to adopt a rule that no one who’s a member of a committee can take money from any political action committee or anyone involved in the industries they oversee.  We’re clearly going to have to look deeply because there is something fundamentally sick about watching the way in which the Congress has dealt with this.

The second, though, is Secretary Paulson.  I think it is profoundly troubling that the chief of staff to the president worked for Goldman Sachs, the Secretary of the Treasury worked for Goldman Sachs.  I’m told the person brought in to oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was a past chairman of Goldman Sachs.  We learned in the New York Times on Sunday that the only private sector institution that was in the meeting at the New York Federal Reserve to discuss the future of AIG was the chairman of Goldman Sachs, and that Goldman Sachs had a 20 billion dollar interest in AIG and two weeks later the Federal government found 85 billion dollars to bail out AIG.

I received an email this morning from a very, very successful businessman who literally is worth hundreds of million of dollars and is very shrewd, who said, and I can’t prove this yet but we’ll be working on it all day today, if you look at the collapse of Bear Stearns, that it was his understanding that Goldman Sachs had been shorting Bear Stearns and that the head of Morgan said he would have paid more for Bear Stearns and was told by Paulson that he could only pay $2 a share.

Now, no one has slowed down – and here’s what’s happened.  Liberal Democrats have no particular interest in learning any of this because they like bigger government, they want more power in Washington, they believe in bigger spending, so they’re happy.  I mean this administration has given them a greater chance to move towards a socialist America than anything in modern times.  They can’t imagine how good George W. Bush has been for them being able to centralize power in Washington and spend your money.  They got 152 billion dollars in a stimulus package in the spring that didn’t work and would have been far better off being spent on investments to create jobs.  They got 300 billion dollars this summer for a housing bailout that didn’t work.  So they’re already up 450 billion dollars.  If you’re a liberal Democrat, it doesn’t get much better than this.  It’s very hard to imagine that if Obama gets elected how he’ll ever match the Bush administration in increasing federal spending.  And now they have a chance to have 700 billion dollars at the Treasury that they get to spend because they expect to replace President Bush with a Democrat.  They’re thrilled.  Why would they raise any questions?

On the other hand, Republicans are so embarrassed that this is a Republican administration that they have felt timid about telling the truth and raising questions.

But here are things that need to be looked at. Was Goldman Sachs shorting Bear Stearns?  Did Secretary Paulson insist on the lowest possible price deliberately, and if so, why?

Why did he punish those particular shareholders, or was he in fact indirectly rewarding Goldman Sachs?  Was Goldman Sachs, as the New York Times alleges, the only company in the room at the New York Federal Reserve in deciding the fate of AIG?  And by what standard, by what right?

I think this is frankly a level of such appearance of corruption, and I think that Secretary Paulson has shown in every way his complete misunderstanding of the job of Secretary of the Treasury (and I just cite – go back and look at his original proposal to give him personally 700 billion dollars with no accountability, no legislative oversight and no judicial review) that I really think the president would be vastly better off to accept his resignation and allow Bob Kimmitt to be the acting Secretary of the Treasury from now to the end of the administration. " (End quote)

This excerpt exposes some symptoms of the problems associated with the current system.  I submit this not a political issue but a heart issue.  Until the intent of the Law is followed, the letter of the Law will be abused and misused to accommodate the plans of the unrighteous.  "Love thy neighbor" also means to do the right thing and submit to the intent rather than just the "letter".

Merry Christmas!

December 24th, 2008

We want to thank the readers and contributors to Servias Ministries for a blessed year!  People around the world celebrate the birth of Our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ throughout the month of December.  We are truly thankful for the Love of Our Heavenly Father for sending His Son for our redemption.

Contango vs. Backwardation

December 20th, 2008

Contango is a term used in the futures market to describe an upward sloping forward price curve (as in the normal yield curve). Such a forward curve is said to be "in contango" (or sometimes "contangoed").  Futures contracts have specific maturity dates for delivery such as March ’09, June ’09, etc.  If you are buying wheat for delivery in June of 2009, you may pay 50 cents additional over the current price (spot price).  This is the contango scenario.

Formally, it is the situation where, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or a far future delivery price higher than a nearer future delivery.

The opposite market condition to contango is known as backwardation.

Backwardation occurs in seasonal commodities such as natural gas where in the winter shortages may occur and force the short term price up whereas prices in the future assume no shortage.  Dramatic immediate demand causes backwardation.

As of 12/19/08, The spot price for natural gas was higher than the futures price:

NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu)

                                                       PRICE*   CHANGE     % CHANGE        TIME

Nymex Henry Hub Future       5.33         -.21           -3.86            12/19

Henry Hub Spot                     5.68          .04               .71            12/19

 

Anticipated increased demand in the future causes future prices to rise relative to immediate price transactions.  Expected reductions in demand cause prices to decline… in normal circumstances in the current system.

When a financial tsunami hits, futures markets react differently and cause investors to move away from greed and respond with fear.  Investors begin to liquidate positions due to the unknown.  Technical models no longer work and fundamental investing is put on hold.  Price volatility sends amateur investors heading for the doors.

When an abnormal contango occurs, suppliers respond by buying near term contracts and sell longer term contracts.  Currently, large oil companies with plenty of cash are buying oil (rather than producing it) at $34 and immediately selling it on a futures contract for $43.  They have leased tankers to sit in the harbor and store this oil until the delivery date (within30-60 days) and pocket a $9 profit per barrel less cost of storage.  See: http://uk.reuters.com/article/allBreakingNews/idUKL365240820081203?rpc=401&

If you have $90 Million handy, you can do the same.

The Kingdom of God does not operate on speculation (contango & backwardation) but on wisdom, understanding, knowledge, and skill from above.  Joseph was given instruction from Our Heavenly Father in dealing with a Great Depression/famine in the times of Pharaoh.  When David was king, the country entered into a famine.  He inquired of The Lord and found out what to do in order to end the famine.  Wisdom from above is required to get us through these times of great perplexity.  Elijah prayed earnestly to end the drought on the land.  Supernatural intervention is the key to solving the world’s crisis.  It appears that man has now reached his "level of incompetence" in dealing with this more complex world.  Leaders are groping around for solutions to the myriad of problems confronting the nations.  Iceland is bankrupt, Ecuador is in sad shape, and Greek protestors are frustrated with government’s ineffective handling of the economy.

Events are occurring in an accelerated fashion.  This acceleration defies man’s understanding and is causing many to question the future of their nation as well as the global economy.  It would appear that we are at an end of an age where complexity ultimately crumbles under its own weight.

What should the individual do?  We should each seek The Father’s Face.  We should enter into our closet, be still, and wait on The Lord.  Jesus didn’t say "if you pray", He said "when you pray".

Mat 6:5-13

"And when you pray, you shall not be like the hypocrites. For they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the corners of the streets, that they may be seen by men. Assuredly, I say to you, they have their reward.

"But you, when you pray, go into your room (closet or booth), and when you have shut your door, pray to your Father who is in the secret place; and your Father who sees in secret will reward you openly.

"And when you pray, do not use vain repetitions as the heathen do. For they think that they will be heard for their many words.

"Therefore do not be like them. For your Father knows the things you have need of before you ask Him.

"In this manner, therefore, pray:

Our Father in heaven,

Hallowed be Your name.

Your kingdom come.

Your will be done

On earth as it is in heaven.

Give us this day our daily bread.

And forgive us our debts,

As we forgive our debtors.

And do not lead us into temptation,

But deliver us from the evil one.

For Yours is the kingdom and the power and the glory forever. Amen.

Those who are motivated by Love and service to mankind will receive the wisdom, understanding, knowledge, and skill to establish HIS Kingdom on this earth.

The Great Perplexity

December 17th, 2008

Perplexity is "trouble or confusion resulting from complexity ".  If you have been reading this site in the past, you have been exposed to my crusade for moderation and simplicity: SIMPLIFY!  As my wife and I were inquiring of THE LORD recently, we were given the following passage spoken by Jesus:

Luke 21:21-26

21 "Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those who are in the midst of her depart, and let not those who are in the country enter her.

22 "For these are the days of vengeance, that all things which are written may be fulfilled.

23 "But woe to those who are pregnant and to those who are nursing babies in those days! For there will be great distress in the land and wrath upon this people.

24 "And they will fall by the edge of the sword, and be led away captive into all nations. And Jerusalem will be trampled by Gentiles until the times of the Gentiles are fulfilled.

25 "And there will be signs in the sun, in the moon, and in the stars; and on the earth distress of nations, with perplexity, the sea and the waves roaring;

26 "men’s hearts failing them from fear and the expectation of those things which are coming on the earth, for the powers of the heavens will be shaken.

This passage focuses on the pre-conditions to the arrival of "THE SON OF MAN", CHRIST found in the next verses:

 

27 "Then they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory.

28 "Now when these things begin to happen, look up and lift up your heads, because your redemption draws near."

 

Our Heavenly Father had us focus on verse 25, specifically the word "perplexity".  The "confusion resulting from complexity" clearly describes the state of the global economy today.  We are in the midst of a great perplexity.  World leaders are attempting to sort out this global mess of financial instruments of mass destruction.  The greed inherent in the system over the last 3 decades has created a bubble of epic proportions.  Our Heavenly Father issued this passage as a warning of the times.

In the Stock Market Crash of the 1930’s, men jumped out of windows to their death.  Now as men see their entire life savings evaporate in the stock market and hedge funds, we can expect to see failing hearts from fear and from the expectation of things to come.  We are told these things so that we can prepare.  How can we tap into the wisdom from above?  By following His instructions.

We were then told to proceed to the book of Titus, specifically the following passage:

Titus 2:10-3:3

10 not pilfering, but showing all good fidelity, that they may adorn the doctrine of God our Savior in all things.

11 For the grace of God that brings salvation has appeared to all men,

12 teaching us that, denying ungodliness and worldly lusts, we should live soberly, righteously, and godly in the present age,

13 looking for the blessed hope and glorious appearing of our great God and Savior Jesus Christ,

14 who gave Himself for us, that He might redeem us from every lawless deed and purify for Himself His own special people, zealous for good works.

15 Speak these things, exhort, and rebuke with all authority. Let no one despise you.

3:1 REMIND them to be subject to rulers and authorities, to obey, to be ready for every good work,

2 to speak evil of no one, to be peaceable, gentle, showing all humility to all men.

3 For we ourselves were also once foolish, disobedient, deceived, serving various lusts and pleasures, living in malice and envy, hateful and hating one another.

 

Verse 13 ties us back to Luke 21.  We are warned to deny ungodliness and worldly lusts. Instead, we should live soberly (in moderation), righteously, and godly that He might redeem us for "His own special people".

Cheap Oil (and gasoline) temporary

December 13th, 2008

Everyone is enjoying the breather in high gasoline prices.  Do not be lulled to sleep, these prices will rise again with a vengeance.  The de-leveraging phenomenon hit all commodities with a sudden wave of sellers who were required to raise cash.  The fundamentals of peak oil have not changed in the last 36 months.

Who is at the center of this oil de-leveraging? It may include Glencore International AG, a privately held company owned by its management and employees. Headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.  The following unverified graph provides a view of the exposure of Glencore:

 

image

 

I have not fully verified this data but if it is accurate, Glencore has a serious problem.  With the unwillingness of banks to extend credit, even large companies may not survive.  Total Assets were US$ 60.0 billion and Total Glencore Shareholders’ Funds were US$ 15.7 billion at 31 December 2007.  It will be interesting to see Glencore’s 2008 numbers.  According to an Australian Public Radio report, "Glencore’s history reads like a spy novel". The company was founded as Marc Rich & Co. AG in 1974 by billionaire commodity trader Marc Rich, who was charged with tax evasion and illegal business dealings with Iran in the U.S., but pardoned by President Bill Clinton in 2001. In 1993 and 1994, Rich sold all of his majority share in Marc Rich & Co. AG back to the company.  The enterprise, renamed Glencore, is now owned and run by his former associates, including former Glencore CEO Willy Strothotte and present CEO Ivan Glasenberg. In 2005, proceeds from an oil sale to Glencore were seized as fraudulent, in an investigation into corruption in the Republic of Congo. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glencore

From my personal experience, the Swiss tend to be hush, hush about financial issues of their own industries.  If Glencore was on the wrong side of credit default swaps, we will soon find out.

How many of us have simply parked or sold our cars and travel by foot or bicycle?  Once you have a taste of mobility, you never want to go back.  This is the reality of China and India.  Their demand continues to rise.  The following graph from the IEA depicts the demand growth of energy:

image

 

The following graph depicts the needed supply growth over the same period:

image

The IEA expects the following:

– A serious decline in currently producing fields

– A leveling off of total crude oil production (optimistic)

– A growth in natural gas liquids to take up the slack.

This will require 64 million barrels per day of gross capacity additions- 6 times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia.

$300 oil is on the horizon…

Will Our Heavenly Father release the revelation of free energy?  Only when Love prevails.  Until then, brace yourself for a wild ride.