Servias Ministries Blog

The title should tweak your interest, it did mine.  I receive a few  Christian monthly newsletters by mail.  In recent years I must confess that many of them were not personally relevant to me but nonetheless I scan the newsletters for topics of interest.  Last Thursday morning (early) I opened one newsletter and this was the first article, “America’s Coming Super Depression”.  The writer had a prophetic dream in early 2009 and in it, he was speaking to a financial expert who told him in mid-August of 2010, wheels would be put into motion to abandon the US dollar.  After this, everything was going to change!  On August 15, 2009, he had a confirming dream.  In the second dream, he found himself at a food court in a shopping mall.  The only restaurant still open was labeled “School Cafeteria”.  The food should be cheap, maybe $2 for a meal, but a plate of food was $30.  He protested and walked out and suddenly a Chinese restaurant appeared.  He ordered coffee and the Chinese waiter said “Coffee – $10”.  Again he was shocked and angry that it cost so much money and walked away.   The dream ended.  In a third dream, he was hungry and was in the cafeteria of an actual school.  All of the other people in line were adults.  “What is the special?” he inquired.  “It’s Thanksgiving dinner.  It is five meals for $99 and if you want that price, you need five people in your group”.  He protested.  The dream was over.

I must admit that after reading this, I wasn’t sure if I was to react to it.  After all, I have heard hundreds, maybe thousands, of prophetic words over the years.  Christian TV has had prophecy teachers proclaiming the demise of most every nation for years.  However, this time is different.  Two hours after I read this newsletter, my lovely wife awoke and came into the office and greeted me with a question, “What?’  She explained that she just had a dream where she and I were in a Chinese restaurant having dinner.  I leaned over to her and said, “There’s something I want to tell you, guess what?”.  She awoke and The Lord told her to ask me “What?”.  I showed her the article in the newsletter that had the “Chinese connection”.  We asked Our Heavenly Father about the article and the dream.  HE indicated to us that I was to share this on the blog thus I have now done so.

Any good businessman hopes for the best, prepares for the worst.  Our Heavenly Father issues warnings not to scare us but to prepare us.  If violence is coming, we should be prepared to go through it by faith, not by fear.  The attitude of entitlement and arrogance of the U.S. has set itself up for lamentations.  Our Heavenly Father will evoke a corrective judgment on nations who move toward godlessness.  The adversaries of the U.S. have been empowered by this attitude.  Homeland Security has spent billions and still cannot keep airplanes safe.  Another homeland attack is inevitable since the covering of THE LORD has been lifted.  These prophetic warnings are to be heeded even though we all know that Our Heavenly Father may evoke mercy at any time and avert the judgment.  Unless this happens, lawlessness will be dealt with by righteous judgment and the “books” will be reconciled.

We have been led to buy glass storage containers to hold staple foods.  As you may know, plastic leaches into the food and is a toxin so those baggies are not the best to store food in.  Many foods do not have a long shelf life so a 90 day revolving food supply would be a good investment.  The current national food distribution chain assumes about a 20-25 day inventory of food.  Local vegetable gardening will flourish as will the art of canning.  Maybe its time to assess your food pantry and begin accumulating to a 90 day supply.  Seek out a local food co-op and join it.  Calamity occurs for a season and we should prepare for that season knowing that judgment will not be eternal.  Remember HE loves us.

I wish that I could write only about pleasant topics but the marketplace demands our focus and it is not good news.  Our Heavenly Father is orchestrating an interesting drama that will affect the lives of the entire globe.  It looks like the tipping point is within 15 miles of the Boston Tea Party.  The people of Massachusetts elected Scott Brown, a Republican, to replace Ted Kennedy who held the Democratic Senate seat for five decades.  What???  This totally unexpected event will have global repercussions.  How?  President Obama and his administration are losing their perceived power at breakneck speed and they are now moving into the self-interest survival mode.  Things were looking pretty good 6 months ago but now the liberal state of Massachusetts has begun throwing tea overboard.  Obama immediately went after Wall Street and immediately the Dow Jones dropped.

Rev 18:21  And a mighty angel took up a stone like a great millstone, and cast [it] into the sea, saying, Thus with violence shall that great city Babylon be thrown down, and shall be found no more at all.

The word violence comes from a root word hormē meaning:

1) a violent motion, impulse

2) a hostile movement, onset, assault

Violence in the marketplace (Babylon) means volatility, uncertainty, and destruction.  Volatility is a “violent motion” of impulses and I expect seismic swings in the stock market, gold market, and energy market.  As we say in cowboy country, cinch it up ‘cause it’s going to be a wild ride!  The “management by perception” methodology is giving way to the stark reality of the global economic tremors.

We could easily see $100 daily swings in gold.  The timid investor will lose money this year as he gets bucked off of the gold bull.  The mature believer has already seen turmoil at a personal level and has been prepared for the Babylonian violence that is coming.  The times in the wilderness requiring us to walk by faith and not by sight and base our direction on the word of THE LORD was well depicted in the movie “The Book of Eli”(Rated R for violence and language).

As the violence rages we must rest in our assurance that Our Heavenly Father will see us through this turmoil.  We must continue to take steps to shed ourselves of any unnecessary baggage that demands our servitude.  Invest in your relationship with Our Heavenly Father by spending daily time seeking His Face.

40 States are moving toward bankruptcy or insolvency and will need Federal assistance to stay afloat.  In Euroland, the focus is on Greece who only accounts for 3% of the Union’s GDP whereas California is equivalent to the 8th largest economy in the world.  Both Federal and State authorities have built an infrastructure base on an “optimistic” tax base and will look to the taxpayer to support this economy built on sand.  Expect more taxes, more fees, higher utility bill, and any other means for those authorities to extract your wealth.  Do you really think the Fed can raise interest rates with this mess ready to push us into the double dip recession or worse?  On the other hand, “big money” wants to be paid interest on their money, hence volatility and violence in the markets are expected.

The Democrats must figure out what to do before the November elections.  The Scott Brown victory has caused a cry to “abandon ship” because the incumbents don’t want to lose their job (and their healthcare).  Only the GOD OF HEAVEN AND EARTH knows how the next few years will play out.  Why not go to the Source?

The other word to expect to see is “treachery”, an act of deliberate betrayal of trust.  As self interest moves into survival mode, men will become desperate.  Their desperation will evoke treacherous acts that will be exposed for all to see as the “Light of the world” comes on the scene during the destruction of Babylon.  The lawlessness that has infiltrated the current system will be replaced by the righteousness of the Kingdom.  Truth will sweep away the refuge of lies.  People have trusted in the U.S. Dollar but will be betrayed by those in control of the value.  The Law of equal weights and measure will replace the subterfuge now in place.  Complexity will be replaced by Simplicity!

Peak Oil was projected to occur in 2005 and as of today, that projection is holding true.  Two thirds of the global population lives at or below the poverty level.  All of the energy use has been focused on the privileged one-third.  What about those people in the other category?  They want access to energy just like everyone else.  Their immediate goal is to become part of the “Middle Class”.  At the same time, the global population is growing on an exponential curve.  “Houston, we have a problem!”

You can use the following traditional French riddle to illustrate the nature of exponential growth:

Suppose a water lily is growing on a pond in your backyard. The lily plant doubles in size each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking out all other forms of life in the water. For a long time, the plant seems small, so you decide not to worry about cutting it back until it covers half the pond. How much time will you have to avert disaster, once the lily crosses your threshold for action?

The answer is, "One day." The water lily will cover half the pond on the 29th day; on the 30th day, it doubles again and covers the entire pond. If you wait to act until the pond is half covered, you have only 24 hours before it chokes the life out of your pond.

What “day” will the global leaders wake up to this problem as it relates to resources?  People assume price to be the key factor in determining surplus of inventory.  A low price suggests a surplus of inventory whereas a high price would indicate a shortage.  Prices affect our decisions to consume energy.

Natural gas is heading for supply crisis.  Cheap natural gas has caused many drillers to suspend drilling operations because they can’t afford to drill when prices stay below $6 per mcf.  It’s simply uneconomic to drill a $6 million well and pay notable lease costs when you will be unable to recover the costs at $4 natural gas prices.  Traders point to the current inventory levels as the indicator of cheap prices in the foreseeable future.  However,

The following analysis provides a 12-24 month view of the natural gas situation in the U.S.

Areas of Supply Growth

Areas of Supply Declines

I believe we will see a net decline of US natural gas supplies of approximately 8.5 bcf/day.

Unless the economy collapses, expect upward pressure on natural gas prices and their related stocks.  This situation is not about reserves under the ground but extraction of those reserves at an economic equilibrium.  Shell gas needs a $6 breakeven and $7-8 price to really encourage drillers to ramp up their activity.  In the meantime, leases are beginning to expire and will need to be renewed to hold those reserves in place, further increasing the cost of drilling those properties.

Those with natural gas production in place will enjoy a wider profit margin once the market prices in this disparity in supply and demand.  This should make up for the underpriced natural gas being sold in 2009-2010.

I expect gold to hit $1,600 per ounce on or before 1/11/11 and expect silver to hit $22.

Oil should trade in the range of $40 to $100 range unless traders finally figure out the peak oil occurred in 2005 and move the price to “conservation” levels.  Iran could impact these numbers to the upside.  The U.S. economy could move the numbers to the downside.  The overall  average should be between $60-$80.  Natural gas has the biggest upside challenge.  $4.50 looks pretty good right now and the pricing pressure will continue to pull on the $6 level since all of the shell natural gas has a rough breakeven there.  Lower price will cause gas drilling to dry up in the shell plays and ultimately translate to lower supply.  States with natural gas revenues will suffer in 2010 at these lower prices.  High energy prices help the revenues at both Federal and State levels as we have shown in the past.  They receive the greatest windfall when energy prices are high even though they act sympathetic toward the consumer during those times.

The stock rally since March of 2009 was supported by the government stimulus package.  Economic collapse in the next 12 months has a 50% probability of happening.  If this happens, the Dow Jones Industrial Average could drop to 7,700.  The Fed will fight this risk, especially prior to the 2010 election cycle.  Congress will stimulate the economy with a jobs bill of at least $150 billion.  According to leading economic indicators, we will initially see an economic recovery but the risk remains.  With over 7 million unemployed workers not contributing to the economy, any recovery will be hampered.  State governments (about 40 of them) are in deep trouble.  Tax revenues are dropping rapidly and continued cuts will increase the unemployment numbers.  See: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5OM27Cn39Yk&pos=4  California is the 8th largest economy in the world and is broke.  The Terminator may have some problems in getting Washington to print up some extra money for him.  Federal tax collections are down substantially and you can count on more stimulus to make the current members of Congress look palatable for the November elections.  These realities will have a negative effect on the deficit and future interest payments to support it.  On the bright side, corporate inventories are down and will need to be replenished which will help the GDP numbers, temporarily.

Inflation will continue to increase because the Fed will be unable to raise interest rates to fight inflationary pressure.  This will continue to hurt the savers who practiced fiscal discipline while reckless borrowers were not required to fully pay for their actions.  Bond yields will put pressure on interest rate policy and will impair the recovery, a catch 22.  It will benefit savers who have not been sucked into riskier investments since by waiting, they may see their interest checks rise as the bond market wakes up the Administration with a forced increase in yields.  On the other side, a broad recovery needs low rates.  The net result: someone will not be happy.

Management by Perception from Washington will continue to create noise and misdirection.  Cooked numbers and rhetoric mask the underlying realities which you and I have to deal with at a personal level.  Who represents us? Our Heavenly Father!  This is why it is necessary to focus on HIM and not trust or rely on Washington to see us through this.

What can I do to protect myself against this volatility?

1. Continue de-leveraging- pay off debt.

2. Simplify and change your buying habits.  Do without by choice and see how you do.  “Act your wage” as well-known talk show host Dave Ramsey says.

3. Give.  This is contrary to your natural inclination.  Our Heavenly Father open rewards those who meet the needs of others in a genuine fashion.  HE loves a cheerful giver.

4. Fellowship.  Face to face time with family and friends is a great, inexpensive alternative to other time consuming entertainment alternatives.

5. Dwell and meditate on the Word of GOD and HE will direct your ways through the turbulence.

6. Analyze ongoing expenses and look for ways to reduce those expenses or eliminate them.  Why pay for storage when most of what is in it will be eventually thrown away.  Get aggressive on utility bills and figure out ways to reduce your usage.

7. Pursue your calling with renewed passion.  Each of us has a calling and Our Heavenly Father will bless that calling with the resources of Heaven and earth.  However, don’t expect to blessed in your ego-based direction outside your calling.  It’s just a waste of time, energy, and money which ultimately creates remorse. 

Management by Perception continues to assume the herd mentality will keep the wheels on the current financial system “wagon”.  Statistics have been cooked to support the belief that all is okay and we should start spending again.  The “too big to fail” banks have continued paying bonuses with taxpayer-based profits.  It has been said that if a banker can’t make money in this environment, he needs to get out of banking.  When you get money at 0% and invest it at 3-6%, you will make money.  Federal bailout money is designed to take value away from the taxpayer and reward large banks who took unnecessary risks then were rewarded with large bonuses.  There is all of this free money for financial institutions yet the credit card interest rates are on the rise.

There is a continuing ground swell of dissatisfaction with the current system.  Taxpayer revolts continue to surface.  Technology is enabling those who are becoming active in the quest for change to produce another view of how the system ought to work.  The following is an example of the coming confrontation of views:

Recently, various and sundry commentators have claimed that gold is in a bubble.  Every bull market does its best to remove as many participants as possible on its way to “exuberant investing”.  However, this is not yet the case for gold or gold equities.  Junior gold stocks are still relatively unknown to the investing public.  Central governments in the Far East are woefully deficient in gold reserves relative to times of historical highs in gold.  Institutional investors have little or no exposure to gold or its related stocks.  The following chart located on U.S. Gold’s website provides a perspective of the bubble potential of gold:

Gold remains a currency barometer for all the fiat money around the world.  The U.S.Dollar, a fiat currency, is based solely on the perception of strength of the United States.  This perception of strength has been sustained for decades but we must be careful to be too short-sided in our view.  Our manufacturing based economy has been replaced by a services based economy.  Manufacturing jobs left the U.S. in favor of cheaper blue collar labor.  The same is now happening with research & development (R&D).  The erosion of the U.S. infrastructure will surely come back to haunt us.

In 2010, it is expected that state governments will incur a $125 Billion deficit.  In Oklahoma, state workers have already been given notice of staffing cuts of 10%.  Tax revenues declined by 28.5% versus last year.  40 other states are in worse shape.  County and Local governments are seeing declines in tax revenues which will translate into further unemployment.  The Federal Government is attempting to slow the decline with stimulus dollars but with only some positive effect.

The U.S. consumer is holding the answer to the near future.  I find more and more people are jumping on to “simplification” message.  Who needs fifty tee shirts in their armoire?  The personal surplus of “stuff” is starting to leave the household.  Unneeded clothing, furniture, and “boy’s toys” are leaving the garage.  This will all translate to lower retail sales.  The “stuff” is now deemed to have no lasting fulfillment and people will start waking up to that fact soon.  The days of the sloppy look will soon leave as well.  The ultra casual look of pajamas and low crotch jeans will be replaced by a more formal look as people compete for jobs which are becoming scarce.

Painful times are ahead for the global economy.  There is no indication that the Fed will be able to slow the quantitative easing (printing excess money) even though they give lip service to it.  In recent days they further opened the checkbook to beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The FDIC has required 3 years’ premiums in advance from banks and it still virtually broke.  Banks sold securitized investments to clients such as Pension Funds then bet against the performance of those investments.  You cannot have all these complex problems and think that there will be no suffering.  The day of reckoning will occur, the only question is “when”.

Each one of us is as unique as a snowflake.  We hope your Holiday Season is blessed and your New Year is prosperous.

Source: http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/

Proliferation of lies is at epic proportions.  How can one invest properly when the truth is so difficult to obtain?  Do men think that Our Heavenly Father is just going to sit around and let this deluge of lies continue unabated? 

Standard & Poor’s bond rating agency recently issued the following statement:

“The downgrade reflects our opinion that the measures to reduce the high fiscal deficit are unlikely, on their own, to lead to a sustainable reduction in the public debt burden. If political considerations and social pressures hamper progress, we could lower the ratings further,” it said.

Which country was the focus of this downgrade in quality?  If you live in the U.S. you would be convinced that S&P just reduced the U.S. Treasury Bond’s credit rating.  S&P could use that precise language to describe the current direction of the economy and the levels of debt and deficits that will take decades to resolve.  However, this new rating is directed towards Greece.  See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6827320/SandP-downgrades-Greece-while-concerns-mount-over-secret-defence-budget.html

The ninth Commandment is the basis of all court procedure.  Any dispute must be resolved by the truth.  U.S. Courts have been infiltrated with the view that the truth is secondary to the “facts” of the case and has opened the door to misrepresentations of the facts to be held as “truth”.  Sly and intelligent lawyers, witnesses, prosecutors, and law enforcement personnel have managed to impart their version of the “truth” to further their specific agendas.  Corporate marketing executives have “bent” the truth about their products and their ability to deliver as advertised.  Government leaders find it necessary to lie to the citizens of their countries for the “greater good”.

Truth is the basis of society.  It is like a glue that holds relationships together.  Can any relationship sustain the habitual lies of at least one of the parties?  Integrity is consistency of actions, values, methods, measures, principles, expectations and outcome.  Only when a person bases his walk on truth will he be known for his integrity.  As we pursue truth, our integrity quotient will increase but if we are caught in a lie, our integrity moves quickly to zero.  As governments are caught in lies, the citizens begin to reciprocate with their own lies.  If you study the demise of the Soviet Union, you will find that lies ripped the fabric of that society and was the basis of their fall.

The U.S. tax base is falling.  In 2010, it is estimated that the state, county, and local governments will experience a $2 Trillion deficit.  State governments have already begun to cut services and personnel.  Things are going to get worse around the country.  This is no longer a time for denial but it is the time for all of us to set aside our own agendas, seek Our Heavenly Father, and to turn from our wicked ways.  The truth is going to prevail.  The only question is how much pain and suffering will occur to restore this glue that holds society together?  This country and the globe are going to experience judgment associated with lawlessness.  It is only a matter of time.  The Ten Commandments were given to protect and promote a peaceful society.  Once again, men think that they know more than Our Creator and can establish themselves as “gods” by superseding the most fundamental of realities- truth.  Their fruit will be judged soon.

One of the greatest business principles to come out of Scripture is to follow Life and the Living.  By contrast, following death and the dying insures failure.  You can pick any industry and view its history to find evidence of this reality.  The medical profession is a great example.  On one hand, surgeons have found that less invasive techniques of surgery promote quicker recovery time.  On the other hand, administering more drugs increase the probability of complications (aka, contradictions) thus exposing the patient to unintended consequences.  The Environmental Protection Agency is mandated to protect the population against mercury poison whereas the Dental industry has a history of putting mercury amalgams in teeth.  Dentists who continue to put metal amalgams in teeth will slowly lose clients as the population understands the negative impact of this practice.  Dentists who embrace this understanding of life-promoting protocols will flourish in their business.  The rest will wonder what happened.

John 10:10  The thief cometh not, but for to steal, and to kill, and to destroy: I am come that they might have life, and that they might have [it] more abundantly.

Hearing Our Heavenly Father (by way of Jesus Christ) is a prerequisite to following Life and the Living.  In the Gospels, Jesus gave us critical business principles to live by.  Purse life, not death.  Embrace change and you will not only survive, but you will thrive.  Overcome your emotional attachment to things, ideas, and past success so that you can embrace the dynamics of life.  Become a fruit inspector and analyze any endeavor to determine if it is producing good fruit or is capable of producing good fruit.  If it isn’t, let it go.  Ask Our Heavenly Father to open your eyes and ears so that you can see and hear what is around you so that you can embrace and pursue life.

There is nothing wrong with abundance, Jesus promoted it.  There is something wrong with having abundance in order to consume it on “me and my four, and no more”.  We are all part of the body of Christ and are to supply each other.  When one has a need and another sees it AND can fulfill it, failure to do so is an indictment against the body and puts both parties in bondage.  When left unchecked, this bondage will produce death.  Lack is all around us but we tend to filter out the needs of others so that we can “get ahead”.  By hearing Our Heavenly Father in the area of giving, we open ourselves up to the abundance that Jesus spoke of in the above passage.  Quit being self-centered in your prayer time and ask Our Heavenly Father who you can bless today.  Who can you save from death and destruction?  Our Heavenly Father is the giver of life and HE is aware of all the needs as well as the location of all the abundance to meet those needs.  As you shift your focus from the mirror to those in need, you place yourself in a position to receive revelation that will put you on the path of Life and the Living.

If you are fearful of taking an action in a new direction, you may not be hearing Our Heavenly Father.  “Faith cometh by hearing” Our Heavenly Father.  HE provides the peace and assurance of being on the right path.  If you have an idol in your heart, it will impede success.  Only be spending time in prayer can these idols be exposed.  As King David realized that his actions produced death, his plea became: “Create in me a clean heart, O God; and renew a right spirit within me.”  If your business is currently unfruitful, stop, listen, repent, forgive and be forgiven, respond with change.  When you align yourself with the Author of Life, success will find you!

January 11th, 2011 has been of great interest to me. Circa 1997, Our Heavenly Father brought this into focus.  I was working “heads down” on a programming project on a Friday afternoon and suddenly the “anointing” came.  HE immediately told me to turn around and look at the clock and it was precisely 1:11:11.  HE said, “I bring MY anointing at the precise time”.  The anointing comes based on need.  At that time, I began to keep an eye out for any event tied to this number.

Economic cycles occur in multiple forms: short-term, long-term, monetary based, job based, etc.  What would happen if that “Perfect Storm” of cycles all converged at a specific point, similar to “Black Monday” in 1987, but with a greater magnitude at the convergence point (or date)?  It appears that early 2011 may be one of those such points.  See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6763411/Baroness-Vadera-I-still-have-nightmares-about-the-financial-crisis.html