Servias Ministries Blog

John WIlliams at www.shadowstats.com provides us with a comparative graph to show the reality of the U.S. Economy:

This picture confirms what I see in my daily life.  Restaurants are not as crowded, Walmart and Target are not as busy, and there are plenty of commercial properties that have been closed and now are up for sale.  When I was in New York recently I noticed that it was not as busy as previous trips to the “Big Apple”.  The Federal Reserve has injected huge amounts of money into the system and the above graph is the result.  They were able to keep the patient on life support but for how long?

With the latest whistle-blowing the U.S. has been caught with its hand in the cookie jar.  Further, officials who have lied to Congress have been exposed for all the world to judge… and it ain’t pretty.  They simply provided that crucial second witness needed for the BRICS countries to further decouple their economies away from the Dollar reserve currency.  Who wants to do business with someone of this nature?

Events are accelerating and that will lead toward volatility in the markets.  We must maintain our resolve and commitment to what Our Heavenly Father has shown us during these times.  Hearing HIS Voice is of critical importance.  During the coming transition we must continue to “beaver away” in what is connected to our individual callings.  Our gifts should be operating at 100%.  Let not the events cause you to be caught in a trance of indecision or inaction.  HE will guide you daily in preparation of coming events.  There is plenty to do in relation to your calling.  There is plenty to give up that has nothing to do with what the future holds.  I call these activities “time burners”.  Minimize those activities that seek only to distract you from your calling.  If in doubt, do nothing until you hear Our Heavenly Father provide direction.  It will be the best of times, or the worst of times, depending on whose voice you are listening to.  

Gold and silver are in the middle of another smackdown.  This may be the one to test notable lows.  Hopefully you are not leveraged up in this market.  This does not look too good.  The gold price was orchestrated downward by the central planners to remove most of us who  believe that gold and silver are the only “currencies” that can retain value over the long run.  The bullion banks who carry out the central planner’s mandate are not concerned about profits since they have somewhat of a guarantee over the long haul.  Unless utter destruction comes, they simply rollover their positions until they finally book a profit.  This can be achieved by trading dips with large sums of money and booking the profit.  You and I don’t have that privilege.

In the last five years the Fed has financially repressed the middle class and taken billions of dollars in interest income away.  I see nobody paying for that infamous deed.  Now, the Fed must deal with rising interest rates and this is where it will get ugly.  It is estimated that there are $441 Trillion in interest rate derivatives.  When rates go up there will be substantial losses and margin calls.  “Gamblers” will have to come up with cash to cover their margin call requirements.  They will even sell Grandma’s jewelry if necessary.  They will sell anything of value to raise cash, including gold and silver.  In the short term, this will cause a cascading drop of all asset prices.  It will be the unwinding of the “Wealth Effect”.  If the contraction of cash gains momentum, it will shrink spending thus shrink the economy.  The end result?  Possibly THE Depression.  Will it be the “Great, Great Depression”?  Only Our Heavenly Father knows.  Is this the time of Babylon falling?

The chart below shows the quick drop in the price of 10 Year US Treasury Bonds.  When the price goes down, the yield goes up and holders of the bond lose big money.  If they leveraged their position by borrowing money to hold these bonds, they get whacked… or as we say in cowboy country “jack-slapped”.

Notice how quickly the price fell.  In percentage terms that is a huge drop (and loss).  Be careful about investing.  There are perilous times for the small investor.  I will buy silver with the belief that its value will not go to zero.  I can’t say that about the U.S. Dollar though.

Early yesterday it was clear the markets were out of control.  China had issued a statement about the excess leverage in its banking system.  The world markets responded with substantial losses.  The Fed and Chinese stepped in and eased the concerns and the Dow Jones Average recouped earlier losses of the session.

The Chinese economy confirms its slowdown as well as Australia.  Emerging countries’ currencies are disconnecting.  Bond interest rates are rising.  UK salaries are continuing to fall.  Riots are affecting Brazil, Turkey and Sweden.  The Eurozone is still in recession.  The U.S. is still injecting $85 Billion per month to prop up markets. 
The Japanese Nikkei stock index has fallen more than 20% in three weeks during which there have been three sessions with losses exceeding 5%.

The Federal Reserve has had the view that if you can create the “wealth” effect, consumers will spend.  This was to be done by propping up the housing market and stock market.  What about those 23% who do not have a job and the impact on those who have to support them?  That drags down the desire to spend when you have family and friends needing assistance.

The U.S. real estate market is not in as good of shape as the media would have you believe.  Just look around.  There are houses on the market for sale as well as vacant houses not yet for sale as well as houses that should be foreclosed but the banks have stalled until the pipeline can handle more properties.  There are millions of distressed properties available.  Property values are notably down from the 2008 top.  Yes, some agri-land properties haven’t lost value but consumer residential properties in middle-class neighborhoods are the big issue.

A second crisis appears to be on the horizon.  We all need to be spiritually prepared.  The time frame is in Our Heavenly Father’s hands.  Will it be 2013?  I have no idea other than what Our Heavenly Father is having us do in preparation.  Our focus is on haring His Voice, simplifying our lives, and moving toward maturing in our understanding of the Truths in Scripture.  Our little Bible study is like a microcosm of the big picture.  First, we focus on HIS Character trait of Love.  Second, we are given the understanding of the Quantum versus Non-Quantum aspects of super-positioning, this being a protective aspect reserved for the “time of trouble”.  Third, the climatic maturing of the Remnant will begin in our study shortly.  Each day that passes gives each of us the opportunity to mature a little more.  Focus on being sensitive to HIS Voice.  Turn off the radio or TV and listen.  Clear your head of all the noise of the world.  Focus on what is important now!  The current system is heading towards a cliff and we must remain vigilant in our ongoing preparation toward the fullness of our individual callings.  The writing is on the wall.

There are simultaneous issues around the globe:

In China,  Their liquidity is under tremendous pressure.  “The shadow banking system is now at $2 trillion and 50% of debt is rolled over every 3 months, and 75% of China’s debt is rolled over every 3 to 6 months.”  This is very high leverage and credit has grown in China from $9 trillion to $23 trillion since 2008, over 200% of GDP.  Home prices are 16 to 18 times income.  In the U.S. prudent lending says 3 times income is the high-end parameter.  Credit creation is producing diminishing returns.  1 new Yuan of credit creates only .15 Yuan of GDP.  In 2008 that same credit created .85 Yuan of GDP.  China is in the midst of high inflation.

In Japan(3rd largest economy in the world), the Balance of Payments is collapsing as well as the personal savings rate.  The population is collapsing.  Population will go from 125 million to 90 million over the next 35 years.  There won’t be enough young people to support transfer payments to the old.  The bond markets are falling and will eventually collapse.  There is surging debt with all of the money printing.  Japan cannot afford rates now, but interest rates are headed higher anyway.  The result? A collapse of the Japanese yen.  The problems in Japan cannot be solved and will eventually lead to a problem for the rest of the globed.  This will lead to a huge global crisis.

In Europe, the Greek bond market plunging again and now the IMF is suggesting that they are going to pull the plug.  Germany is now finding itself under economic pressure and it cannot save the entire group of weak countries of Southern Europe.

In the US, if you adjust properly for inflation since 1973, the weekly wage has been reduced in half, a staggering 50% loss of purchasing power over 4 decades.  The food stamp usage is up to 50 million, and real unemployment is at 23% in the US according to shadowstats.com.

Last week, we saw the stock market respond negatively to Bernanke’s speech indicating that Quantitative Easing is nearing an end.  The market did not like that position.  Simultaneous to his speech, the gold price was slammed again in the same manner as the last attempt to convince the market that the U.S. Dollar was the place to be.  There was one huge trade during the off hours that sent the gold price off of the cliff.  No individual trader would make such a trade.

All of the above events point to highly volatile times ahead.  This roller coaster ride could be “heart-pounding”, “jaw-dropping”, and “heart-stopping”.  Get the defibrillator paddles out and be ready to yell “Clear”!

Bail-In Negotiations Continue

Depositors’ money around the globe continues to be a target for the central planners.  Rather than returning to laws that protect depositors from bank “gambling” activities in the derivatives arena, the focus is on how to keep taxpayers from taking on the burden of bank failure.  They act as though the depositors and taxpayers are two totally separate groups.  So who are they targeting?  All of us in the end.

See: http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/8829748/Banking-collapse-bail-in-dispute

Japan’s Economy is in shambles

Expect Japan to have an ugly economic event within the next eighteen months.  Their aging population will force a collapse in bond prices.  There appears to be no way that Japan’s bonds can be funded by the population.  Will the contagion spread to other parts of the globe?

1st Quarter Gold Demand: Look to the East

They want to thank the West for depressing the price and paying for their gold with exported U.S. Dollars.  What a deal!

I finally received my tax return for 2012 back from the tax authority. It puzzles me!!!
They are questioning how many dependents I claimed.
I guess it was because of my response to the question: "List all dependents."
I replied: 1 million illegal immigrants;  1 million crack heads; 4 million
people on government support; 1 million people in over 50 prisons;
and 5000 persons in the Federal and State Parliaments, plus 1 useless
Prime Minister."
Evidently, this was NOT an acceptable answer.
I KEEP ASKING MYSELF, WHO DID I MISS?

(From our friends from Down Under)

You may insert your own numbers and names.

83% of the AAA rated Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) created during the housing bubble were later downgraded.  What is wrong with this picture?  Pension funds are restricted to what investments they can acquire.  Often, they can only acquire securities that are “investment grade” or AAA.  A scathing article was written by Matt Taibbi.  He writes for the Rolling Stone Magazine.  His language can be offensive, you have been warned:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-last-mystery-of-the-financial-crisis-20130619

‘We were told to lie’ – Bank of America employees open up about foreclosure practices

See: http://rt.com/usa/foreclosure-america-employees-bank-946/

The hailstones keep getting bigger!

This is the takedown I have been expecting.  At this writing, gold has dipped below $1,300:

Silver dipped below $20:

This is the classic takedown play after the Federal Reserve’s meeting.  The intent of this takedown is to dissuade investors from fleeing to the precious metals as the Fed is continuing its debasement of the U.S. Dollar to the tune of $85 Billion per month.  The markets are now addicted to the Quantitative Easing (money printing) and when you take away the addict’s stash, he goes into severe withdrawal.  If aggressive money printing isn’t working, why would you continue it?  Out of fear of collapse.

Is this the bottom?  It is hard to say.  Typically, Friday is the day the central planners force the price down in order to “paint” the technical charts into bear territory.  Nonetheless the second half of this year will possibly be chaotic.  Once again, the Chinese are smiling as they buy these metals at bargain prices… unbelievable!

The following site lists the Fed’s bailout recipients.  If you have much money in any of those institutions, it might by wise to diversify.  Even if they paid back the funds, they still may have the issue of mismanagement or a less than robust business model that put them on the list in the first place.  See: http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

The following chart shows the “official” position of both numbers:

Calls for an audit of Official U.S. Gold Reserves have been left unanswered.  The true public debt with unfunded liabilities moves the red much higher.

Additionally, one of the most admired and read of the investment newsletter writers, Richard Russell, writes about what he calls, “The Great Gold Rip-off.”  In his recent newsletter, he is quoted as saying:

“My guess is that China and Russia soaked up a good deal of the bargain-priced gold near the bottom of the panic. China waits patiently while the US spends its way into bankruptcy.  Which reminds me, there’s still lots of talk about the true amount of gold owned by the US.  Then why the hell doesn’t the government or the Fed finally audit our gold holdings and put an end to the rumors?  From what I understand, neither the Fed nor the US government want an audit.  If the gold is really there, then why don’t they put an end to all the rumors?  For heaven’s sake, let’s have an audit — or is there really something to hide?

I feel we are besieged with rumors, secrets, lies and manipulations.  I’ve felt this way before, but I’ve never felt this strongly that we (Americans) are being lied to and manipulated.  What’s to hide?  Jesus told us that we must know the truth, and the truth will make us free.  Then for God’s sake, start telling us the truth!  My intuition tells me that if it’s a secret, it’s probably evil.  Ultimately, good or bad, everything comes to light– although it may take time.”

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