A fundamental law of life is that growth uses energy. This is true of an individual as well as a nation. If you take away the energy supply of a person, they will cease to grow and begin to use any stored energy (fat) to sustain life until all the energy is gone. Once the energy source is depleted, death arrives. There are immense amounts of energy stored everywhere but the wisdom, knowledge, understanding, and skill to tap into those sources is not yet available to us. “Atomic” energy is plentiful throughout the universe. The sun is a great example. However, mankind’s current paradigm depends on fossil fuels to support growth- oil & gas. Current depletion rates of conventional oil fields is at an effective rate of 4 million barrels per day annually. In three years, this is equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s total output. We are not finding additional oil to offset this depletion rate. Conventional oil peaked in May of 2005 and has never attained that level since. Unconventional oil such as the tar sands in Canada have helped offset the decline. Unconventional oil is much more expensive to extract than conventional sources.
Other sources of energy are being developed but the time it takes to bring them online is beyond the decline curve of the current energy consumption curve. Price will make up the difference. Increased energy costs will drag down economic growth and if the price spikes become severe, another recessionary dip is all but guaranteed.
World leaders continue to seek out “credible” sources that agree with their current view of an adequate supply of oil. Those who do the research always seem to come to a different conclusion- peak oil. Constituents do not want to hear “energy conservation”. However, a shortage of oil will cause price spikes to occur and the oil companies will once again be demonized. Let’s not be confused with the facts!
The U.S. will finally respond to the energy crisis by legislating less red tape for nuclear power. Additional nuclear plants will be built and a bubble will form in the uranium mining sector. Once again, the U.S. and China will be competing for resources. With the world population anticipated at 9 billion by 2020, the resource wars will heat up to a fervor. Legislators will give incentives for the citizenry to get rid of its gas guzzling SUV’s and further increase the deficits. High speed rail powered by electricity will finally be at the forefront of national infrastructure spending while the airline industry will be focused on the wealthy and their travel plans.
The resource rich nations will draw the wealthy to their borders. Those with depleted assets will see a dramatic shrinkage in their middle class populations. in a paradigm shift of this magnitude, denial is the first phase of the shift and we are currently here. I suspect another jump to $150 oil will bring us out of this phase. The next phase is acknowledgement of the problem but people will attempt to operate under the old rules in an attempt to function using the previously successful methods of energy development thus wasting valuable resources. The third phase brings innovation and development of new ways of living and generating energy. Embrace change, it’s coming.
Jesus brought a paradigm shift when He walked the earth. Our Heavenly Father brought a paradigm shift when HE removed HIS glory from Shiloh, then Jerusalem. The Scripture is full of paradigm shifts so we should not be caught off guard with the current shift in process. This is one of the reasons for this website.