“Complex societies in the ancient world could collapse when the marginal costs of complexity got to the point where the returns on that complexity had vanished: basically, the cost of civilization got too high.” J. Tainter
Having been in the finance and technology arena for 37 years, I am convinced that we are moving toward a tipping point of diminishing returns on investment in complexity. The output will be worth less than the input. Our Heavenly Father imparted the word “simplify” to me a few years ago. That tends to conflict with my expertise in technology… but Father knows best.
The average American has been in an accumulation phase for the last 60 years. We have built bigger houses, rented offsite storage, added vacation homes, etc. If each of us were to clean out all items we haven’t used in the last five years, we could probably outfit the population of Mexico with a complete “home” makeover. Americans have been seeking happiness with “things” and have failed to fill the void with all the toys, trips, and events. True peace only comes in the presence of Our Heavenly Father. The Holy of Holies is a great example of simplicity for it was not a cluttered room filled with artifacts gathering dust. Can you image moving all of your household goods 42 times in 40 years? Less is more.
The U.S. Government has continued to grow to the point where the sheer weight of the infrastructure is sure to collapse. The Bernie Madoff scheme was uncovered ten years ago but the SEC could not or would not understand the complexity of the scheme thus they did nothing to stop the scam. The whistleblower approached them four times with the financial analysis proving Madoff to be a fraud. The lawyers at the SEC did not understand the analysis and failed to act. Complexity creates a mysterious and superior illusion that intimidates that average person. This complexity makes the uneducated person reluctant to challenge the assumptions the complexity was built on. Therefore, the complexity is perpetuated. Who wants to read a 1,200 page healthcare bill? If it’s 1,200 pages, it must be right! Explain those credit default swaps to me again?
Technology and complexity have failed to win the war against terrorism. Bin Laden is still out there. The complex resources of the U.S. have not been able to locate this man for nearly a decade. If he would just wear that shirt with a red bull’s eye, it would help.
Throwing technology at the health problems of Americans has done little to improve the “quality” of life. Ask any chemotherapy patient who lost her hair, vomited up blood after one treatment and spent the night in an emergency room. Someone yell “Uncle”! Introducing pharmaceutical toxins or radiation simply forces the body’s immune system to overload. Technology to remove anything alien to a healthy body would be a better use of investment dollars. The body is designed to heal itself. Our Heavenly Father who loves us did not design our body to torture our souls. Jesus did not become an expert on pharmaceuticals in His ministry. Tell me again, what is Naproxen sodium?
Funding complexity ultimately forces the government to get creative with our money. As complexity grows in an exponential fashion, the value of money declines in an inverse relationship. When I was a kid, my parents owned a drive-in restaurant and we sold five hamburgers for $1. Cokes were ten cents with the larger ones being twenty-five cents. Now, those same Cokes are $2 at a restaurant. We gave you an environmentally friendly paper cup whereas now it is plastic or Styrofoam. The government can inflate faster than your wage can increase thus you always lose out on inflation. Retaining value in your savings account is now most challenging.
The speed of collapse may be breathtaking. The potential financial meltdown of 2008 proved that a “black swan” event can happen without notice, especially to the general public- you and me. Our sole warning mechanism is our relationship with Our Heavenly Father who is the only one who fully and completely understands the risk of collapse as well as the day of catastrophe. As we move closer in our relationship with Our Heavenly Father, we position our self to be prepared for anything life throws at us. Time is short.