The latest drop in oil does not reflect the long-term supply constraint. I suspect the boys in the Beltway are trying to punish Russia for its activities in the Ukraine. The Saudis are in agreement with the drop. Could they need protection from possible invaders? They are willing to pay the “policeman” to protect their interests.
The graph below looks similar to gold when the agent banks intervene on behalf of western planners to suppress the price:
Look out below… BOOM!
PS: Oil contracts (paper) are about 20 times the physical supply. This is also known as leverage and it can cut both ways.